A Time series analysis of residential energy demand forecast in Nigeria
The supply of efficent, reliable and affordable power is a major criteria to enhance development in any given country. Up till now Nigeria has battling with low economic growth and decay of infrastructure largely due to power outages and low generation as well as transmission. The development of energy infrastrucure is capital intensive which must be carefully and holistically planned especially when furture expansion fram work is taken into consideration. This researched paper is aimed at carefully forecasting the quantity of power that will efficiently supply the residential areas in nigeria for meaninful economic growth as well as industrialization. Using Time Series Analysis as tool for forecasting,The outcome shows that the country need to improve on her generation , transmission and distribution facilities to deliver atleast 20,000MW on or before 2030 .
Sambo, S. A. “Electricity Demand from Customers of INGA Hydropower Projects”: The Case of Nigeria Paper presented at the WEC Workshop on Financing INGA Hydropower Projects, pp. 21-22, London, U.K. 2008.
Kouris G. “Fuel Consumption and Economic Activity in Industrialised Economies: A Note.” Energy Economics; 5;pp. 207-212. 1983b.
IEA: International Energy Agency. “CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion -2010.” International Energy Agency, France. 2010a.
Pindyck RS. “The structure of world energy demand.” MIT Press, Cambridge MA. 1979.
Whirl, F and Szirucsek E. “Energy Modeling – Survey of Related Topics.” OPEC Review; 12(4); pp. 361-379 1990.
Ryan D. and Plourde A. “Empirical Modeling of Energy Demand” in International Handbook on the Economics of Energy, Evans J and Hunt LC (eds), Edward Elgar Publishing, UK. 2009.
Hartman, R. S. “Frontiers in Energy Demand Modeling.” Annual Review of Energy; 4; pp. 433-466. 1979.
Bhattacharyya, S. C. and Timilsina, G. R. “Energy Demand Models for Policy Formulation: A Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models” The World Bank Development Research Group Environment and Energy Team, Policy Research Working Paper No: 4866. 2009.
Chateau, B. and Lapillonne, B. “Long term energy demand forecasting: A new approach” Energy Policy; 62(2); pp. 140-157. 1978.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3), 289–326. 2001.
Arbex, M. A. and Perobelli, F. S. “Solow meets Leontief: Economic Growth and Energy Consumption.” Energy Economics; 32 (1); pp. 43-53. 2010.
Asteriou, D. and Hall, S. G. “Applied Econometrics” Palgrave Macmillan, New York, US. 2006.
Thomas R. “Introductory Econometrics: Theory and Applications.”, 2nd Edition, Longman, London, UK. 1993.
Nordhaus WD. “The Demand for Energy: An International Perspective.” in Nordhaus WD (Ed.) International Studies of the Demand for Energy, North Netherlands, Amsterdam, Netherlands. 1977.
Bohi, D. R. and Zimmerman, M. B. “An Update on Econometric Studies of Energy Demand Behaviour.” Annual Review of Energy; 9; pp. 105-154. 1984.
Johansen S. and Juselius K. “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; 52(2); pp. 169-210. 1990.
Harvey, A. C. “Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter.” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 1989.
Harvey, A. C., Henry, S. G. B, Peters, S. and Wren-Lewis, S. “Stochastic Trends in Dynamic Regression Models: An Application to the Employment–output Equation.” Economic Journal; 96; pp. 975–985. 1993.
Harvey, A. C and Shephard, N. “Structural Time Series Models.” In: Maddala GS, Rao CR and Vinod HD (Eds), Handbook of Statistics, Vol. 11 North Holland: Amsterdam; pp. 261-302. 1993.
Bernard et al., (1996)
Houthhakker, H. S. “Some calculations of electricity consumption in Great Britain.” Journal of Royal Statistical Society; 114; pp. 351-371. 1951.
Chang, Y and E. Martinez-Combo. “Electricity Demand Analysis Using Cointegration and Error-Correction Models with Time Varying Parameters”: The Mexican Case. Department of Economics, Rice University, United States. 1997.
Dodgson, J. S., Millward, R., Ward, R., “The decline in residential electricity consumption in England and Wales”. Applied Economics 22, 59–68. 1990.
Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., Prasad, A., “Electricity consumption in G7 countries: a panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities”. Energy Policy 35 4485– 4494. 2007.
Donatos, G.S., Mergos, G.J., “Residential demand for electricity”: the case of Greece. Energy Economics 13 (1), 41–47. 1991.
Al-Faris, A.R. “The demand for electricity in the GCC countries”. Energy Policy 30, 117–124. 2002.
Ziramba, E. “The demand for residential electricity in South Africa”. Energy Policy 36 (2008) 3460 –3466. 2008.
De Vita, G., Endresen, K., Hunt, L.C., An empirical analysis of energy demand in Namibia. Energy Policy 34, 3447–3463. 2006.
Bose, R. K., Shukla, M., “Elasticity’s of electricity demand in India”. Energy Policy 27, 137–146. 1999.
Dincer, I., Dost, S., “Energy and GDP”. International Journal of Energy Research. 21, 153–167. 1997.
Al-Zayer, J., Al-Ibrahim, A.,. “Modelling the impact of temperature on electricity consumption in the eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia”. Journal of Forecasting 15 (2), 97–106. 1996.
Lin, B. Q., (2003). Electricity Demand in the people’s Republic of China: Investment Requirement and Environmental Impact. Economics and Research Department Working Paper Series Number No.37. Asian Development Bank.
Copyright (c) 2019 IJRDO - Journal of Electrical And Electronics Engineering (ISSN: 2456-6055)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Author(s) and co-author(s) jointly and severally represent and warrant that the Article is original with the author(s) and does not infringe any copyright or violate any other right of any third parties, and that the Article has not been published elsewhere. Author(s) agree to the terms that the IJRDO Journal will have the full right to remove the published article on any misconduct found in the published article.