Prediction of Wind Farm Power Output Based on an Enhanced Recurrent Neural Network

  • Ethelbert Chinedu Eze University of Sussex
  • E.S. Ibrahim Department of Geography, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
  • C.K. Ihim Department of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
  • C.R Chatwin Department of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
  • T. C. Yang Department of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK.
Keywords: Wind-power Output Prediction, Recurrent Neural Network, LSTM, eLSTM, ARIMA, MSE

Abstract

This paper studies wind-farm power output prediction based on recurrent neural network. First, a hybrid recurrent neural network (RNN) regularization method involving dropout and long short-term memory (LSTM) is presented. In this model, a regularization scheme is applied to modify and adapt the stochastic nature of the wind. Secondly, a new data structure is presented to the model. Thirdly, the method is developed for wind farm power output (WFPO) prediction. This algorithm is based on the dropout method, which has made WFPO capable of better prediction irrespective of the non-deterministic wind speed. The LSTM solves the RNN limitation of overfitting. The proposed method is demonstrated by investigating the WFPO on a fourteen wind-turbines, provides up to 80% accurate result over ARIMA model.

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Author Biography

Ethelbert Chinedu Eze, University of Sussex

I'm a PhD Candidate in Informatics at the University of Sussex, U.K.

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Published
2019-12-22
How to Cite
Eze, E. C., E.S. Ibrahim, C.K. Ihim, C.R Chatwin, & T. C. Yang. (2019). Prediction of Wind Farm Power Output Based on an Enhanced Recurrent Neural Network. IJRDO - Journal of Computer Science Engineering , 5(11), 10-16. https://doi.org/10.53555/cse.v5i11.3353